Friday, 20 September 2013

Pistorius research implications

Mix and match until you find similarities: Oscar Pistorius research evaluated

It's taken me a couple days longer than I would have thought to get around to this post, analysing the recently published research that was responsible for the CAS' decision to clear Oscar Pistorius to compete against able-bodied athletes.

There are a couple of reasons for this - one is the ubiquitous work excuse. But it's also proven very difficult to sift through the paper and find anything to say that hasn't already been said dozens of times before. I almost decided to simply post up links to all the articles I've written on the subject in the last 18 months, because this latest "revelatory" paper does little to dispel any of those arguments, and does not, in my opinion, introduce many new points to the debate. What it does do is so fraught with method questions that I am not sure what I believe, and the difficult part was sifting through the paper to understand how comparisons between Pistorius and the able-bodied runners had been made.

I also struggled whether to do this as one post or to break it up into a few. Eventually, I decided on one, mostly because later this week, I have another post planned and didn't want to interrupt this one. The result, unfortunately, is a long post (sorry). But if it helps, it's divided into three sections, so you can select to read it in parts if you wish:

1. Broad thoughts on the methods - key implications, problems and questions
2. The results - what was found and what it means
3. A wrap-up - the "collective" evidence

1. The methods and comparison - who should he be compared to?

Upfront, one might as well explain how it worked - the research approach was to measure Pistorius and then compare him to able-bodied runners. If they could find that he was "similar" to able-bodied controls, then they would report functional similarity and they'd have grounds to clear him. The keys then, are the definition of "similar" and the comparison group. 

What is similar?

For the purposes of the paper, it's a difference of less than two standard deviations between OP and their able-bodied runners. This is a statistical method used fairly often, though 2 SD is a pretty conservative boundary condition.

The bigger issue is who he is compared to - if their control-group data are not robust, then any comparison is going to be erroneous. If the control is either too small or not well-matched, then you are comparing apples to pears and the criteria for "similarity" are flawed. In this study, then, one would need large groups of 400m sprinters who run between 46 and 48 seconds for the 400m event. This group did not exist.

These able-bodied "control" runners comprised all of FOUR 400m sprinters. The rest were sub-elite distance runners and elite distance runners(we don't know what distance - it is not reported. We only know that one of them is Zersenay Tadese - if you're wondering what he's doing in a comparison with a 400m sprinter, join the club...). We also don't know how good a "sub-elite" runner is.

These things are absolutely crucial, because the comparisons made throughout the research paper are reliant on a valid group to which OP can be compared. That group does not exist. You cannot take only 4 sprinters and generate any meaningful data to which you can compare Pistorius. I suspect (based on some info I was once given) that the initial intention was to use only these sprinters as a comparison. But, as we shall see, OP was very diferent to them, so the re-inforcements in the form of distance runners were brought in. OP was not "similar" to the sprinters, so simply add more subjects until that 2 x SD condition is met...The result is that throughout the paper, it's not always clear who is being compared to who.

Another concern is timing. It seems (and again, I'm not 100% sure what was done, it's explained very "broadly) that the able-bodied controls were not all actually tested with Pistorius. Rather, their data were "historical", in that they existed long before the Pistorius testing sessions took place, and the researchers simply drew from the archives to find them. This is not necessarily a problem, it happens fairly often, provided the methods used are identical and the equipment is calibrated properly. The same thing actually came up in the debate around Ed Coyle's long term research on Lance Armstrong. The problem for this paper is that nowhere is it reported what the time-frames are, how the equipment was used and which athletes are being compared to OP at any given point. That may sound like nit-picking, but when you see how OP was declared "similar", then it has massive implications.

State of training - a crucial factor

And then finally (and I believe this is a crucial factor), the state of training on the subjects is never reported. This has enormous implications for the comparisons, because Pistorius was, according to media reports and his own words, "very unfit and untrained" throughout the period when this testing was done. The stress of the case and all the travel had detracted from his build-up, and this was eventually the reason given for failing to make the Beijing Olympic qualifying mark.

So, we have a comparison between an apparently unfit amputee and (possibly) fit 400m runners, distance runners and sub-elite distance runners. When we look at the results, the measures included VO2 peak, oxygen cost, top speeds, fatigue tests, top sprinting speeds - all factors that would be massively influenced by training. If it is true (and it is likely) that Pistorius was untrained, then he is being compared to trained subjects, and every measurement comparison is invalid. Scientifically, you cannot perform a comparitive study failing to control this aspect.

And, what is more, if he is found to be physiologically similar (as the paper will conclude) then one has to ask what effect training would have - any similarities in variables so strongly influenced by performance will become superior once training effects are factored in. The comparison simply does not work. It must be said - those controls might have been equally untrained, or perhaps Pistorius was trained (I doubt it, based on what Pistorius and our newspapers here were saying), but it is was never reported and remains a question mark in the paper.

2. The findings

A 17% difference in efficiency


Looking at the results, the graph below shows the measured oxygen cost of running.

Very importantly, it is measured using what is called a discontinuous protocol that consisted of running for 5 to 7 minutes at each of a range of speeds(these speeds are not reported, amazingly), with a 3 to 5 minute rest period in between (the exact duration is not reported). A word or two on the methods:
  1. This is not a test that a sprinter should be using - when does a sprinter ever run a sustained bout of 7 minutes, repeated over and over? This is a test suited to an endurance athlete, and as such, will under-estimate values for a sprinter. I recall testing an elite squash player, and we could produce completely different results if we used this kind of test compared to an all-out, shorter duration max test that lasted 10 minutes. Fitness is obviously key to this as well - an unfit athlete (read Oscar Pistorius) would struggle in this test...I do however appreciate that there are issues around aerobic vs anaerobic metabolism.
  2. Second, the speeds were not reported, and nor were the rest periods - was a 3 minute rest standard, or could the athlete take as long as they felt like to recover? Perhaps the recovery time was "selective" to allow OP to continue to higher levels? If it's not reported, it's possible.
The result however shows pretty much the same as what Bruggemann showed when the IAAF did their research - Pistorius is much more efficient than sprinters. Bruggemann showed it during a simulated 400m event, which had some method flaws (and was rightly criticized). The latest results confirm that despite those limitations, the finding remains. Pistorius is actually even more efficient than elite distance runners, which is extra-ordinary. There are a number of reasons for this - one is the reduced muscle mass as a result of not having calves, and this is the only one put forward in the paper, despite the fact that they haven't actually assessed the magnitude this might have on oxygen use.

Others are the passive energy return from the carbon-fibre blades, the improved storage and release of energy by carbon fibre, and reduced work of having to accelerate lighter limbs. These are all reasons for an advantage, andhave been discussed many times before, but are not raised in the paper. What this result does confirm is that the theoretical arguments made are at least valid. It does not necessarily translate into a performance advantage, because of the range of reasons that might produce this difference. Actually sifting through these reasons requires data that was either not obtained or not presented.

VO2 peak and peak aerobic running speed

The next measurement of interest is the highest VO2 recorded during the trial. The authors refer to it as a VO2 max, which is incorrect - because of the protocol used, it's not a true maximum. Instead, it represents only a VO2 peak, and Pistorius is measured at 52.7 ml/kg/min while the controls are at 57.0 ml/kg/min, a difference of 8%. This suggests the previously measured 17% lower oxygen cost of running for OP is not simply due to lower muscle mass, and therefore should be taken a little more seriously than just dismissing it as such.

What is very interesting, and the authors hang a lot of their conclusion on this, is that the running speeds when this peak O2 were achieved are "essentially the same" (author's words). That is, OP hits his O2 peak at a speed of 5.0 m/s, whereas the control sprinters hit it at 4.9 m/s (with a SD of 0.02 m/s, which will become very important in a moment).

Now, a couple of issues here. Firstly, the difference of 0.1 m/s translates into about 2 seconds in a 400m race at the speeds reported. That is significant from a performance point of view, if not stats. But even more vitally, in the paper, the Standard Deviation for the control runner's speeds is 0.02 m/s. Therefore, the difference between Pistorius and the control athletes is equal to FIVE Standard Deviations. This is very, very different, and not "essentially the same". Using the paper's own methods, you'll recall that 2 Standard Deviations was classified as different - here we have a difference of 5 SD. Unless we are going to accept that stats should be used selectively to prove a point, the argument should end right here. Oscar Pistorius runs faster than the controls using aerobic metabolism - that represents a physiological and performance advantage.

State of training - why it's vital
Finally, I refer back to the issue of state of training and equal comparisons. Themeasurement of VO2 peak and running speed are highly influenced by training status/fitness. Are the able-bodied runners and Pistorius equally trained? If not, then an untrained Pistorius is producing physiological results that are comparable to trained athletes. A trained, competitive athlete will achieve higher speeds, a greater VO2 max, but not necessarily improved efficiency. The implication is that Pistorius' VO2 peak will rise, the running speed at which he hits VO2 peak will increase, and he'll look EVEN MORE DIFFERENT to them if the comparison was appropriate. The paper presents a comparison which cannot be trusted - perhaps it's valid, but the critical information is never reported (who are these subjects and how trained are they?). This should have been picked up on for the CAS hearing (and would have been, had this paper been subject to normal scientific process)

Fatigue test results
The next set of tests done was on fatigue, and these are interesting and do actually add to the debate. Here, it seems that OP did a series of all-out sprints to fatigue at a range of different speeds. The methods are actually very poorly explained, and it says only that the range of speeds was from 6.6 m/s (which he held for 89.5 seconds) to 10.8 m/s (less than 2 seconds). There is no explanation of what speeds were completed, how long the rest periods were, or how many intervals were run by each subject (including Pistorius) - "between 6 and 15 tests" is the only explanation given in the paper. The authors do refer to two other published studies in which the fatigue tests are explained. That is obviously good, but the problem remains that Pistorius is about to be compared with a very specific intention of finding either diference or similarity, and so the method used for him becomes absolutely crucial. Even with the method published elsewhere, a comparison of one athlete to that 'database' requires identical methods and process to be followed, and, at the very least, explained in detail.

The implications of this are important. "Between 6 and 15" is an enormous difference. It does not take a great level of insight to appreciate that if you are trying to assess fatigue tolerance using all-out runs to exhaustion, the athlete who has done 6 fatiguing tests will produce a different result to the athlete doing 15 fatiguing tests. So why is the range so large? This is not accounted for in the paper, and the reason for this, I suspect, is that not all subjects have done the same protocol. In fact, the results might well have been collected over a period of years as a 'database' of sorts was formed, with each athlete doing a slightly different protocol.

Point is, if the methods followed are not identical, then one must be careful about making direct comparisons, especially in a fatigue-trial, and especially when subject numbers are low (as they are here). And, any comparisons must be explained in the context of which methods were used for which subjects. In this paper, neither happens - some sprinters were tested, Oscar Pistorius was tested. When and how? These are details the authors seem to have decided are not worth reporting, perhaps because they don't lend themselves to the desired finding.

Yet they're being compared, with only trust to back it up. Given the controversial nature of the subject, and the financial incentives behind Pistorius (Nike, Ossur and co.), independent verification of what was done should have been a pre-requisite for this research to ever be accepted by the CAS. At the very least, the IAAF should have been allowed representation.

The comparison - OP compared to...distance runners

Returning to the fatigue tests, for "similarity", Pistorius is compared to one sprinter and two distance runners - you may decide for yourself if that comparison is valid...

The question I have to ask is why not just give us the comparison with four sprinters? If the data exist, then show it. Unless it does not support the desired conclusion, which, as long as data is "hidden", has to be a possibility in a matter as sensitive and controversial at this. This lack of transparency is a major problem. Ordinarily, science is based on some "trust" that researchers will do what is deemed appropriate. However, the circumstances of this case change the stakes a little.

Pistorius was found to fatigue similarly to these control subjects. That is, he holds the given speed for similar durations. Again, the state of training is a vital aspect here - would a trained Pistorius still fatigue similarly? How comparable are the controls? With training, would Pistorius be better able to maintain speeds, leading to a conclusion that he does not fatigue similarly?

This is another reason why the state of training is so vital, and all reports suggest that Pistorius was untrained at the time of the testing - either that, or he was lying in the media last year when he said the case had kept him from training. Based on his performances in trying to qualify for Beijing, I believe the former - he was untrained, yet still comparable to able-bodied DISTANCE runners for running times.

Another interesting point is that these kinds of constant speed to fatigue tests are very dubious as markers of performance or fatigue. There was a big debate in sports science a few years ago, and the general consensus among performance physiologists (who look at pacing strategy as their main interest) is that you can't infer fatigue or performance from a trial to volitional exhaustion, because they're not repeatable enough and allow too many other factors to influence the result (training is just one of them). You cannot therefore evaluate pacing strategy or fatigue using trials at a fixed speed - they are useful for investigating changes in physiology, but to infer performance is incorrect.

Of course, one obvious limitation is that Pistorius could control the result of this testing by stopping early, given that he knew the theory is that he fatigues less quickly than able-bodied runners. This is why the IAAF should have had representation at the testing - they did not...

Why the selective display of results?

But more to the point, why compare Pistorius to distance runners? Is it valid to ask whether a sprinter fatigues similarly to elite distance runners? And where are the other data? =

You have potentially four sprinters to compare him to! Perhaps they didn't, and only one sprint control existed - this should be reported. Yet they choose to use two distance athletes, and their finding is that he is "similar". In other words, the 400m sprinter shows similar fatigue characteristics to elite distance athletes...extra-ordinary. You'll be aware of course, that distance runners SHOULD show better fatigue resistance, because that's what their events rely on. We know that optimal distance races are evenly-paced, whereas sprinters slow down in the second half. Therefore, to compare a distance runner to a sprinter, and show similar fatigue patters, especially when the sprinter is supposedly untrained (again, this is not reported, so it is speculation), well, that's an incredible finding...

Pistorius' pacing strategy

The authors explain that their finding explains why Pistorius has such an incredibly fast finish in his 400m races. You'll recall that he is the only 400m runner in history who finishes with a faster second 200m than the first. Part of this is without doubt down to his slower start, which has been widely acknowledged. However, what the paper puts forward is that it accounts for all of his unique pacing, which is impossible. Remember, Pistorius has run 10.91 seconds for 100m. That means that he cannot be losing more than about 0.8 seconds at the start (unless you'd like to believe he is a 10second 100m runner).

If he loses 0.8 seconds at the start of the 400m race, it accounts for only part of the time he 'makes up' in the second half. Pistorius runs the second 200m of his races almost 2 seconds faster than the first 200m - only 0.8 s (at most) can be explained by a faster start. Besides, I already corrected for that slower start by relating everything to the 100m time, and it shows the same thing...his fatigue profile DURING COMPETITION is different from other elite athletes.


The Weyand-Herr study puts the rest down to a deliberate pacing strategy, in which case his coach should really be fired, because if that's what he does deliberately, then he deserves the sack, so inefficient is the idea that you should speed up at the end of a 400m race. And in case anyone is thinking that my argument is based on one race - it isn't. I've watched Pistorius many times here in SA, and every race is the same, it's what he does (with the exception of the Beijing Paralympics, but then he said he was unfit and had stomach problems).

On the fatigue front, the jury is out - the comparison with distance runners is flawed, the test is flawed (the manipulation of this particular fatigue test is very, very easy) and the proof of a fatigue advantage will always come from performance, and that speaks very loudly at this stage.

Sprinting mechanics

The final section of the paper looked at Pistorius' sprinting mechanics compared to able-bodied controls. To summarize this section, the graphs below present the key information measured at two running speeds - 10m/s and top speed. (click to enlarge):

To sum up, Pistorius has longer contact times (14%), shorter swing times (21%), shorter aerial times (34%) and a lower peak vertical force (14%) than able-bodied athletes. So what does this all mean?

Well, there are certain similarities with what Bruggemann found back in October 2007. His results, which included energy measurements on the blades, led him to conclude the following:

"Sprinting with artificial limbs is significantly different to able-bodied sprinting on a hard surface. It is a different kind of locomotion at a lower metabolic cost"

In the current paper, the authors conclude that "running on modern, lower-limb sprinting prostheses appears to be ... mechanically different than running with intact limbs".

The one contentious point is the vertical and horizontal forces experienced by Pistorius during running. The graph below is taken from the paper, showing the vertical and horizontal forces:

Compare that to this graph, which was produced by Bruggemann in his 2007 research on Pistorius.


They show basically the same thing - Pistorius experiences lower vertical and horizontal forces. Where it becomes debated is the impact that would have on performance. The latest study suggests that the lower vertical forces might present a limitation to speed, based on previous research looking ath top speed as a function of vertical force generated.

Bruggemann, on the other hand, looks at Pistorius' reduced horizonal force as a distinct advantage, because it means less braking force has to be overcome. Bruggemann's view on the vertical? Well, less work is done on the centre of mass, and his viewpoint, one which I agree with, is that vertical force generation is particularly important during acceleration, but once top speed is reached, it is actually better to have a lower vertical force - the disadvantage disappears. So either way, Pistorius enjoys a mechanical advantage.

What is perhaps most intriguing is that a longer contact time, a shorter aerial time and a shorter swing phase are indicative of someone who is almost "rolling" along the ground. In his 2007 study, Bruggemann found that Pistorius had a lower vertical oscillation (or up and down movevement than able-bodied runners).

The most inefficient part of running is the bit in the air - that's where gravity exerts a negative force on the athlete - followed by the landing, when energy is lost and braking forces have to be overcome. Pistorius spends almost no time experiencing this force, and mechanically, he is moving ever closer to taking part on wheels. Admittedly, that's an extreme analogy, but it's done to highlight just how different Pistorius is. What he does is NOT running. It's never been seen before, but it's not running. So when you next watch him race against able-bodied athletes, you'll be watching seven men running against someone who is not...

Final measure still unaccounted for - energy return

One final aspect that was never covered in the latest research is the aspect of energy return. This was done by Bruggemann in 2007, and you may recall that he found that the energy lost from the ankle joint of a human limb was 41.4%, compared to only 9.3% from the carbon-fibre prosthetic limb.

3. The Wrap-up

What the CAS should have known


The above is a "heavy-duty" discussion of the science presented in the Pistorius paper, and it represents a departure from the 'conversational' nature of this debate up to now. That debate and all the theory behind it is as true today as it was two years ago, and I would say it still holds the theoretical reasons for the Pistorius advantage. This post does not discuss that advantage as much as it dissects research method and study design, which is an essential part of research. However, it was never the purpose of this site to pick apart scientific methods and discussions around Standard Deviations, and so I won't go down this path here again.

Looking back, however, this is the process that should have been followed by the CAS. There is no way that this research should have been allowed to roll into Lausanne in May last year, having never been seen by the IAAF or any other scientist before being presented to the CAS. What is written above is a typical evaluation of scientific method and design, but Oscar Pistorius and his clan managed to bypass it - they ambushed the CAS with the science, and had a group of lawyers deliver a result without the stringent, essential scientific debate that science calls for.

Perhaps the issued raised above are easily addressed - I'm sure some will have "answers" to these questions, or perhaps even more questions. But they are serious questions, some that cannot, I believe, be addressed satisfactorily. For the CAS, however, they were hijacked, and I cannot believe the IAAF would stand by idly and allow that - so this is request to re-open the debate, and present the same arguments above, plus other, probably better ones, in the interests of getting a fair hearing for BOTH sides, not the hijacked hearing that it was...

All in all, the research that saw the CAS clear Pistorius is full of questions, not answers, and the CAS should have waited for this kind of opinion and discussion before throwing a verdict out. The study has too many flaws to ignore, and had any length of time been taken to actually evaluate it, instead of allowing one single day hearing, this might have been discovered.

In conclusion

Given that Pistorius is not actually even running as we know it, I'm not sure what debate still exists. However, to carry on that debate, the latest research published just last week is fraught with what I believe to be significant problems. Pistorius started out as a 400m runner who should have been compared to other 400m sprinters.

In the end, he was declared physiologically similar to elite and sub-elite distance runners, despite having a 17% efficiency advantage. Where he was similar, it is reported, is that his speed at VO2 peak is "essentially the same", even though he lies 5 SD outside the able-bodied average. And all this when Pistorius was, in his own words, untrained as a result of the stress of the travel and trying to prove his innocence. That is no comparison or grounds to declare similarity.

When data is selectively presented without explanation why (where are the other three sprinter's results in the fatigue tests, for example?), when timing is not accounted for, when methods are glossed over with crucial implications, and when comparisons are made between one sprint athlete and all of four sprinters and a host of distance runners, then the theoretical debate goes nowhere.

Where the IAAF research and this latest research DO agree is that Pistorius differs from able-bodied athletes mechanically. It's not running, but a never seen before form of locomotion that is heading towards rolling on wheels. That alone might have been enough to make the right decision. It wasn't, and so I continue to hope that within the next thirty years, another athlete comes along, who, with greater ability, work ethic, and talent, runs 400m in 41 seconds.

Thanks for reading the lengthy post - more general opinion is to follow, and then I hope to leave the issue behind, and prepare for the Tour de France!

2008 Preview: Science of Sport in the year ahead

2008 Preview: Science of Sport in the year ahead

The Crystal ball post: 2008 in Sport
As mentioned yesterday, today we thought we'd do a post looking at the year of sport that lies ahead. Of course, being an Olympic year, the year is centred around 3 weeks in August in Beijing, and I'm sure that come the Olympic Games, we'll pretty much be doing post after post on the events in Beijing. Even leading into Beijing, there will be a great deal of fascinating science of sport content - the heat, the humidity, the pollution, the training programmes, the tactics...and that's all before the events even take place!

Sports science and the Olympics

The field of Sports Science actually owes quite a lot to the Olympic Games. It was the 1968 Mexico City Olympics that gave sports sciences the public profile that they currently "enjoy", because that was really the first time that elite athletes were put into potentially compromising physiological situations with the extreme altitude. Some of the athletes benefited (think Bob Beamon just about jumping right over the long jump pit!), while others did not (Ron Clarke famously collapsed and had to be hospitalized after the 10000m race).

The profile created by these events happened to co-incide with the massive boom in running in the USA, and the field of applied sports sciences, in the public eye, took root! Let's hope that Beijing 2008 does a similar thing - I am sure it will, and here at the Science of Sport, we'll do our best to dig behind the stories to find it!

But Beijing is one of many events and sports to gaze at through our crystal ball. Here are but a few others...

Marathon running in 2008

The big marathons happen in April, October and November, but all eyes will be on Dubai on January 18, where Haile Gebrselassie runs his first marathon since his world record in Berlin. As is usually the case for Geb, he is talking up his chances of another world record. One wonders whether this is the realistic talk, or whether it's marketing hype to raise the profile of the admittedly publicity-hungry Dubai organizers, who have already thrown a truck load of money at the event. If Geb does succeed, he stands to pocket $1.25 million, which includes a $1 million dollar world record bonus.

My prediction for this race is that he'll run a mid 2:05, blame the weather for the failure to run 2:03 (which may or may not be a valid reason), and then return to the more serious business of preparing for Beijing, where he will aim to cap off his career. It's not that Geb doesn't have this 2:04 in him, but in this year, this Dubai marathon is the odd race out - the middle marathon between achieving a life-long goal in Berlin and achieving an even bigger one in Beijing. So don't expect a world record in Dubai (of course, these may be famous last words...!)

What of the other marathons then?

Well, my favourite runner at the moment is Martin Lel, and he's the man to win in London in April this year, defending the title he won last year, and making it three out of the three in the big races. He takes on a star-studded field in London (minus only Geb), but with 63-second final 400m speed, no one will beat him. As for the time, with so many great runners, don't expect anything faster than 2:06 (still unbelievable). I'd guess 2:07-something, with a serious final 2km.

Unfortunately for Boston, the best of the best are all signed up to race in London, so it's a little difficult to pick the winner there. We'll sit on the fence for now and pick a Kenyan, as runners from that country have won 17 of the last 20 editions of that race!

In the Northern Hemisphere autumn, some big races will suffer as a result of the focus of the world on the Olympic Games. But of the few big names left, let's go with Martin Lel to defend his title in New York, and win the World Marathon Series title. For the women, Gete Wami will have her work cut out to defend her title, with a lot depending on whether she races London. And when it comes to women's marathons, it's all eyes back on Paula Radcliffe, who has her sights set on Beijing. Whether this means she'll avoid any other marathons I don't know. If she runs London, she'll win it, and maybe New York at the end of the year, so I'd predict we'll see Lel and Radcliffe atop the podium twice each this year.

The Olympic Marathon

But again, it's all eyes on Beijing. And the Beijing marathons are the hardest to call. It's too early to know who is even going to run, we only know Geb and Baldini for sure. I'm sure Geb will be the massive favourite before the race, but my personal call here is that if you want to bet on anyone, go with a Kenyan who is now based in Japan, or with a South Korean runner who runs a regular 2:07 to 2:08 timeI don't think that Beijing will be the day for the 2:05 men. It's too hot, too humid and too attritional for the fast men, and so they will have to think long and hard about how they prepare.

You may say that a 2:05 guys are the favourites, regardless of the conditions (after all, they are clearly the best/fastest in the field), but the reality is that the situation is likely to be so harsh and attritional that acclimation, local familiarity and preparation will beat speed and pedigree in Beijing. And I feel that habitual acclimation is the key - guys can spend the month before Beijing in Macau or Osaka all they want, but those who live there year round have the upper hand. So if I were a Kenyan selector, the first name down on my team would be Sammy Wanjiru, who is based in Japan (assuming he wants to run), and second down would be Luke Kibet, who won the World title in Osaka, showing he can handle the conditions. They are my favourites.

On the women's side, I'm afraid it doesn't look good for Paula Radcliffe. As much I would love for her to win the Olympic title, I think that heat and humidity, combined with her size (bigger people are severely disadvantaged in hot conditions) and lack of habitual acclimation means that the smart money must be on either Chunxiu Zhou (London champ in 2007), Mizuki Noguchi (defending Olympic Champ), or Catherine Ndereba. Ndereba showed that she can handle the conditions by winning in Osaka, and has shown the ability to get the preparation right for big races - two golds and a silver in the last three big Championship marathons. So Radcliffe will really have her work cut out. I'll go with the Chinese, with Ndereba picking up a minor medal, although I'd love to see Radcliffe win and will be rooting for her.

As we get closer to the time, though, we'll take a closer look at the heat, the humidity and just who's likely to suffer more, survive better, and why...

Cycling - can the Tour stay drug-free, just this once?

As far as cycling goes, we'll stick to the showpiece event, the Tour de France, and when it comes to the Tour, the only thing we can predict with certainty is that drugs will move the riders out of the headlines, yet again. 2007 was a tumultuous year for cycling, with the media and sponsors eventually exerting their muscle by pulling their money out of the sport. Media in many European countries pulled coverage of the Tour off the airwaves and out of the papers, and sponsors dropped their teams by the dozen! Even Discovery, which boasts the winner of 8 of the last 9 tours, failed to find a sponsor, having NEVER even returned a positive test! The sentiment among sponsors may ultimately rescue the sport, by forcing the hand of the organizers, who, frankly, are complicit in the problem.

2007 was actually one of the more exciting Tour de France races. It has been a long time since we saw the jostling, attacking, defending and racing we saw in this year's race, but unfortunately, it was dominated by the positive test of Vinokourov, and the sacking of Michael Rasmussen by his Rabobank team. It took the gloss of the race, but in truth, the gloss is merely varnish applied to a spoiled, warped, rotting surface anyway. So many big names tested positive, retired under doping clouds, or been suspended in 2007 that it's difficult to watch the sport without enormous scepticism. Let's hope 2008 is not the same, but honestly, I doubt it.

So the certain prediction is that the sport will continue to struggle as it attempts to clean up. The biggest problem facing the sport, incidentally, is denial. I saw an interview with Pat McQuaide, head of the UCI, and he denied that the sport had a doping problem. Well, the sponsors seem to think otherwise. So while the UCI bury their head in the sand (as they've done for years), let's hope the sponsors save the sport, in an indirect way.

Perhaps the biggest non-race related event will be to follow the ongoing Floyd Landis story - having failed in arbitration in the USA, Landis was last heard talking about the CAS in Switzerland, and time will tell. And then the million dollar question - will Lance Armstrong stay out of the doping headlines for another year, or could the Armstrong-doper movement gain more momentum in 2008?

On the racing side, don't back Contador to defend his title in France this year. The smart money, according to the crystal ball, is on Leipheimer. Contador is good for some mountain stages, and some exciting racing, but I think the steadiness of Leipheimer gives him the upper hand. Now that's what you call an "out-there" prediction! I do reserve the right to "forget" everything I've written here, by the way!!! And come July, this becomes history!

NFL - the Patriots go the whole way, unbeaten

As a South African, I realise I'm in the distinct minority when it comes to following the sport of Gridiron, or American Football. It's not big here in South Africa, where we consider it a poor cousin to our sport, rugby (personally, I think the athletes who play in the NFL are exceptional and make rugby's best athletes look average). I must confess that I find the sport fascinating. I have recently made a point of watching the games on ESPN every week, and have been lucky enough to read books written by some of the great NFL coaches - Bill Walsh and the like. And I must say, South African sport can learn from NFL in a big way. In particular, our cricket side should pay close attention to the words of Bill Walsh, who said that the character of the team is the most important thing it can nurture for success (ahead of technical skills), and that this character is determined by the team's leadership - the captain and senior players.

In South Africa, we have an enormous problem with team character (in my opinion) and it stems from the senior players and on-field leadership, which has created the bullies of the cricket world, cricketers who curse when they don't win, abuse the opposition when they do, and who display a decided lack of integrity, respect, fibre and intelligent cricket.

Which brings me to my prediction (or rather I should say "fascination") with NFL's New England Patriots. I watched them overturn a 12-point deficit against the Giants last week to record win number 16 of the season. They broke numerous NFL records in the process, but what has struck me most is the attitude and approach they show towards their own "greatness". It appears to me, as an "ignorant" outsider, that the Patriots have a sense of pride, not arrogance (SA take note) in their achievements, but have remained humble and focused on the goal. Interviews I have seen with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Bill Bilicek (key players and the coach, by the way, for those who don't follow the game) have impressed me so much for their humility, focus on the team, respect for team mates AND OPPOSITION and their apparent calm as they pursue their place in history. It's a fantastic case study in how to mold, shape and manage a team, and many teams would do well to pay attention, even if they don't appreciate the actual game.

So given this approach, I pick the Patriots to go all the way, and win the Super Bowl come February 3rd. But then again, I'm a South African, so if anyone feels the need to educate me on this one, I'm all ears! But it's more the approach to man-management shown by the head coaches that the sporting world should take note of.

IAAF World Champs - Day 2 analysis

IAAF World Champs - Day 2 analysis

Day 2 of the IAAF World Champs bought the much anticipated clash between Asafa Powell and Tyson Gay, and this is the race that dominates our analysis of Day 2's action, since it was also the only track final of the day.

Men's 100m - Tyson Gay triumphs over Powell

The much awaited race was ultimately something of a disappointment. Such was the hype that everyone was expecting a world record, which didn't materialize, but then neither did the close head to head race everyone expected. In fact, Derrick Atkins separated them on the line, the final result being

1. Tyson Gay 9.85 s
2. Derrick Atkins 9.91 s (PB)
3. Asafa Powell 9.96 s

So of the top 3, only Atkins really extended himself (though that is a discredit to Gay, who really did dominate the race). As for how it unfolded, it was Powell who got off to the faster start, but only marginally, as Gay, running on his immediate right, held on and then began to move clear after about 50m. Powell had looked good up to that point, much in the way that he looked good in yesterday's qualifying rounds and the early evening's semi-final, where he effectively shut off the engines with about 30 m to go, coasting to the line.

Tonight was however different - instead of being afforded the luxury of coasting, he found himself being caught, and then passed, on his right, as Gay clearly had something extra. For Powell, it then got even worse as he was passed by Atkins, ultimately losing the silver. It was a race that I'm sure Powell would want to forget, and rightly so. I wrote yesterday that the start would be critical, because it would apply pressure that may cause an opponent to seize up and lose form. Tension strangles speed, and in tonight's final, it was Powell who seemed to strangle himself. The replays will show just how badly he tied up in the final 40 m of the race, once Gay moved past him, and it ultimately allowed Atkins through too.

Gay, for his part, was a deserving champion, he handled the pressure really well from the start, and didn't allow Powell's superior start to affect his race. He will carry a great deal of confidence into the 200m event, not that he needs it with his 19.62s performance from earlier this year. Few would bet against a second gold medal...

400m Hurdles semi-finals - some surprises and a familiar face into the final

The other big track event of the evening was the men's 400m Hurdle semi-finals, which we wrote about yesterday. And what a turn-up they were, with Bershawn Jackson failing to make the final after basically 'bunny-hopping' straight into the final hurdle, when he was comfortably in the lead. He came to a virtual stand-still, allowing Felix Sanchez to storm past. Even worse for Jackson, he was passed for second and by virtue of the first semi-final being the fastest (his was second), he was eliminated.

So it is left to the other Americans, Kerron Clement and James Carter to fight the final alone. They take on the afore-mentioned Sanchez, as well as a very surprise fastest qualifier, Marek Plawgo of Poland. Few would have given him a chance before this, but he came through from the outside lane to surprise Carter in the first semi-final.

The Americans seem to me to be quite flat. Perhaps they are playing a tactical game, because they are running easily one second off their best times from the season, but they really do look pretty sluggish. Considering that all three have bests in the low 47-sec range, one would expect them to fly through qualifying when the races are being won in the mid-48 second range. Imagine Jeremy Wariner struggling at 44.8 sec pace and you have a comparison.

Perhaps American 400m hurdling is, in a strange way, a victim of its own strength. The American athletes who run in Osaka have had to qualify in their national championships, held this year in June. And because they have such strength in depth, a 400m hurdler who wishes to run for the USA must be in the sort of condition to run 47.8s at those championships (Carter won the race in 47.72 sec, by the way: Clement was 2nd in 47.80s). But the problem, from a physiological point of view, is that having reached this kind of physical condition, they then have to maintain it through July and August before the World Champs. That is very difficult to do, and I suspect that we are seeing the USA hurdlers on the 'downer' that inevitably follows a physiological peak. It will be a fascinating race, they may well be good enough to win, but whether they will get near those times from June remains to be seen. If they can, the race is theirs, but the Pole and Sanchez may fancy their chances for medals, perhaps gold.

Women's 800 semi-finals - another old face, and perhaps a new one from Africa?

Very briefly, the women's 800m threw up one or two surprises, but the big names who made it through yesterday also made it through to the final. Maria Mutola, Hasna Benhassi, Sviatlana Usovich, Svetlana Klyuka, and most impressive of all, Janeth Jepkosgei, made the final in impressive fashion.

Mutola is something of a sentimental mention, it would be a major surprise if the great Mozambiquan can win a medal in the final, but the other two Africans, Benhassi and Jepkosgei, look a real chance. In particular, Jepkosgei, a relative newcomer in the last 2 seasons, looked awesome, running a world-leading time and a personal best of 1:56:17. She ran it almost entirely from the front, running away from the rest of the field, after a 56-something first lap. Very impressive indeed, and it will be fascinating to see if she can produce this in the pressure cooker of the final, with a couple of eastern Europeans breathing down her neck. The Russians (Klyuka in this case) always seem to produce someone with merit for these championships and they will be dangerous. But Jepkosgei looked super in her semi, and should she go on to win, will be a hero in Kenya, where women's athletics has taken a bit of a dent in recent times. That final is in two days time, and it should be awesome.

Preview of tomorrow - the men's 10000m and a rematch of a distance race in the heat
Tomorrow sees three track finals: Women's 3000 Steeplechase, the women's 100m final, and the one we like most, the men's 10 000m. Few would bet against Kenenisa Bekele, but he is taking on his conqueror from Mombasa earlier this year - Zersenay Tadese of Eritrea. The World Cross-country champion Tadese conquered Bekele and the heat, and he will be optimistic about doing the same in the heat of Osaka. However, Bekele has really shown himself to be in great form, with speed over 3000m that few will match, so he must be the favourite, to join his compatriot Dibaba in defending his 10000m title.

Join us tomorrow for the report on that race.

Until then, happy running

Our vision

Our vision

Welcome to the blog Want to..............................

This site was 'born' at the end of April 2013 as our attempt to give Sports Science and Exercise Physiology a broader appeal, while at the same time providing a site where people could be educated and learn about physiology and exercise performance.

Science without application is really nothing more than stamp collecting, and so we really wanted to give everyone the opportunity to appreciate the physiology and science of performance in a real sense. The aim was to take relevant and interesting (to us, anyway!) topics in sports science and apply them to every one who has every taken part in sport at any level.

We quickly evolved into a news site, and as we stand today, we have two distinct categories of posts

One is our physiology series, where we try to summarize sports science literature and make it "conversation-worthy" for you. Hopefully, it helps your training, or at least ignites your interest in physiology and science. 

Our second type of post is a news story, where we try to add our insights into sports events and current affairs. Our method is to take sports news and try to give you the second, third and fourth level of insight that you can't get from the popular media. These posts are necessarily opinionated, for they reflect our view of sports, based on evidence, which is where we'd like to think we differentiate our coverage from the news sites. Their purpose is to apply a more intellectual approach to debates, to seek discussion and clarity, and to peel away the "mystery" and explain why things happen the way they do.

In other words, you can pick up your local paper or read the sports news on the internet, and they will tell you WHAT happened. Our aim is to fill in the blanks, and try to explain HOW, WHY, WHERE and WHEN it happened, to give that level of insight that we hope can't be found anywhere else!

We're both very interested in cycling and running, in particular. You can read our bios here. We try to cover the range of sports and events, but we do have a natural bias towards these two sports.

I (Ross) have always been a "big picture" thinker (or try to be!), and I think it's really important to pull together interests and information from a wide range of sources. My other qualification is sports management, and the marriage between business, science and sport, especially as applied to sports performance, is my own particular goal. If scientists tend to look at only one square of the chess board, and business another, my goal is to step back and show you the whole board.

We are also both active and qualified coaches, Ross for running and Jonathan for cycling. Our ultimate goal is to apply the science and physiology, and there is no better means to do this than through coaching.

We look forward to much debate and discussion on our posts this year!